It's not all bad. Climatologists presented a new forecast of global warming
April 19, 19:00 Share:
How much warming will eventually occur due to increased CO₂ emissions is not yet clear. (Photo: pixabay)
As carbon dioxide accumulates in the Earth's atmosphere, it becomes warmer. However, how much warming will ultimately occur due to increased CO₂ emissions is still unclear.
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The relationship between CO₂ and temperature, known as climate sensitivity, determines what climate changes await us in the future as CO₂ levels continue to rise.
A new study from the University of Washington analyzed the last Ice Age to better understand this relationship.. It found that while most projections of future warming remain the same, the most extreme scenario is unlikely.
The study, published in the journal Science Advances, suggests that the Last Glacial Maximum, when much of North America was covered in ice, could help understand how climate responds to changes in CO₂ levels.. According to lead author, Vince Cooper, “The main contribution of our study is to narrow the estimate of climate sensitivity and improve our ability to make predictions of future warming.”
The new study does not change the best-case warming scenario of doubling CO₂ emissions and increasing average temperatures by 2 degrees Celsius, but reduces the worst-case scenario of doubling emissions by a full degree. Atmospheric CO₂ is currently 425 parts per million, about 1.5 times higher than pre-industrial levels.
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Researchers warn that recent decades are not a reliable predictor of future global warming due to short-term climate cycles and the effects of air pollution.. The new study focuses on the Last Glacial Maximum, when CO₂ levels were less than half of current levels.
Researchers have developed new modeling techniques that can use past climate data to predict the future.. They combined climate data with computer models to simulate the Last Glacial Maximum. As a result, they found that changes in clouds over the oceans exacerbated the global cooling of ice.
So, the study shows that CO₂ levels played less of a role in Ice Age temperatures than previously thought, meaning the darkest warming predictions are less likely to happen in the coming decades.