Two maritime conflicts are developing in the world. One of them is in the Black Sea, where Ukraine, which does not have warships, destroys the Russian fleet. Similarly, in the Red Sea, Yemen's Houthis, backed by Iran, are effectively attacking merchant ships and causing asymmetrical damage to the United States.
“Ukraine and the Houthis are now making a revolution in naval battles,” ex-US Admiral James Stavrids describes the situation. “So far, US warships have been repelling Houthi missile attacks quite easily, and terrorists are only damaging merchant ships. But economically, the Pentagon is losing. On American ships, air defense missiles such as the SM-2 cost over $2 million each, and a destroyer often fires two shots at an approaching target just to be safe.. And the Houthis are so far flying drones that cost about $1,000.”
Mind invites you to find out the opinions of American experts on why the United States cannot ensure the safety of navigation in the Red Sea.
Lessons from the Ukrainian and Houthi naval wars
Two years ago, Ukraine ushered in a new era in surface warfare. Using drones for targeting and cruise missiles for a crushing blow, the Ukrainian Armed Forces sank the powerful flagship cruiser Moskva.. Following him, another 20 large warships, or a quarter of the pre-war Russian Black Sea fleet, went under water or were seriously damaged.. In attacks on giant surface targets, small unmanned boats have shown amazing effectiveness.
“The conflict in the Black Sea taught us the most important lesson: surface ships – destroyers, cruisers and even massive American aircraft carriers – are now easily vulnerable to attacks from nimble drones. You no longer need to send a full-fledged warship to sink another. The old children's game “Battleship” needs a makeover with the addition of water drones.. And U.S. Navy crews need to diligently prepare for the inevitable—an enemy drone or missile hitting our ship,” writes James Stavrids.
In his opinion, in order to adapt to the new realities of naval wars, it is necessary to study what role intelligence plays in them. The United States provides Ukraine with information about Russian ships from its satellites. And the Houthis are supplied with intelligence by Washington’s opponents. Iranian ships help Yemen find targets in the Red Sea and strike them.
Another important lesson is the “kill the archer to avoid the arrows” strategy.. We must strive to destroy enemy assets on land – launchers, maintenance facilities, trailers, ammunition depots – before launching missiles. The United States, according to James Stavrids, will have to deploy more aircraft in the Persian Gulf – either on an aircraft carrier group or on the ground – to quickly launch airstrikes against targets in Houthi territory.
Range of Houthi missiles
Reasons for US failures in the war with the Houthis
The Houthis control a third of the territory and 70% to 80% of the population in Yemen.. US intelligence initially overlooked the formation of this Shiite group in 2000-2014, and then during the Houthi war with Saudi Arabia in 2015-2022, it disdainfully treated them as puppets of Iran.. Now American diplomats have to admit that Yemen is independent, and for them it is a blind spot.
Thus, Pentagon representative Daniel Shapiro said at a recent hearing in the US Congress that the United States does not know what arsenal the Houthis have to wage war in the Red Sea. Iran, he said, does not control the Houthis, but undoubtedly supplies them with weapons. The US Navy intercepted over 200 shipments containing “underwater/surface drones; engines, guidance systems and warheads for Houthi ballistic missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles; air defense components; explosives…”
“For twenty years, US foreign policy in Yemen has made two mistakes,” says Eleonora Ardemani, a Yemen expert at the Italian Institute of International Political Studies. “First, it focused on containing another Yemeni group, al-Qaeda, involved in the attacks. on the destroyer USS Cole in 2000 and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001… Secondly, the United States looked at the military-political development of Yemen through the lenses of Saudi Arabia. Because of this, Washington mistakenly considered the Houthis to be Iranian proxies.”
The biggest setback for the United States was the refusal of regional allies to participate in the naval war.. Yemen's neighbors are afraid of being targeted by Houthi missiles and drones. Of the Arab countries, only remote Bahrain dared to provide airstrikes against the Houthis.. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, which fought in Yemen until 2022, called for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, and Oman closed the skies to anti-Houthi aircraft and publicly condemned the aggression of the United States and its allies.
What do the Houthis want?
Since November 19, 2023, the Houthis have carried out over 57 attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, where 15% of all maritime trade takes place.. They used ballistic and cruise missiles, aerial drones, unmanned boats and, in one case, a helicopter hijack.
In response, the United States and Britain have been carrying out air raids on Houthi military installations in Yemen since January 11.. Air strikes, according to The Daily Beast, hit mobile artillery installations that are easy to replace. These attacks did not discourage the Houthis from pursuing naval warfare, but instead inspired them to redouble their efforts.
“The Houthis are primarily energized by the very idea that they are fighting the United States. American airstrikes increase their ability to mobilize more people,” former Houthi spokesman Ali Albuhaiti told The Daily Beast.
The Houthis themselves position themselves as defenders of the Palestinians and claim that the purpose of their attacks on ships in the Red Sea is to put pressure on Israel to end the war in the Gaza Strip. American analysts do not believe this and accuse the group of playing a political game for the domestic consumer.
“The Houthis are unpopular in many regions of Yemen due to the terrible economic conditions that have arisen there, as well as due to repression. The maritime conflict is a way to rally nationalist support, since sympathy for the Palestinians is almost universal in Yemen,” said Daniel Byman, director of Middle East studies at the Brookings Institution.
Also, in his opinion, by causing chaos in the Red Sea, the Houthis increase their geopolitical significance and attract foreign financial and military support.. Their main sponsor was Iran, which had ceased to be the main villain in the region.
“It’s convenient to use the Houthis. They distract attention from Iran, which in comparison acts much more responsibly. So Iran probably won't stop sponsoring the Houthis.. Rather, he will decide to increase arms supplies to show that he is behind the Houthis, and therefore it is necessary to negotiate with Iran,” believes Daniel Byman.
Analysts call the war in the Red Sea a black hole for sucking money and doubt that the Houthis' military power can be undermined by airstrikes. Missiles and drones in Yemen are assembled either deep underground or in densely populated urban areas, and weapons imports pass through the territory of the internationally recognized government. Airstrikes on it may make the militants living there want to join the Houthis, for whom Iranian propaganda creates the image of victors over Saudi Arabia and the entire West.