YAKTAK dropped out of the list of main contenders for victory in the national selection
After the songs of all participants in the National selection for Eurovision 2024 were presented, Telegraph conducted a survey among Ukrainian show business experts who made a prediction about who will win the competition. The result was unexpected. From their point of view, the first place has every chance of being taken by not recognized favorites.
Leaders of the national selection – why YAKTAK is not seen as a winner
To some extent, to the surprise of even experts, Ingret has the best chance of winning the national selection with the song “Keeper”. This singer was silent for a long time after she took second place in the “Voice of the Country” show under the leadership of Potap in 2017. After that, she signed a contract with his production center MO3GY and took part in the national selection in 2018. However, in both cases she was unsuccessful.
Despite previous failures, experts see her, almost unanimously, as the main contender for victory. And this despite the fact that she is far from the leader in terms of the number of views on YouTube.. The main reason for such a favorable prognosis for her was the message of her song.
“Her song is about femininity and women during the war, and the lyrics correspond to this. Thank you for the precision of the message and the voice, which captivates from the first seconds, it has a game in it, it reflects the competition itself, that it is about a song, about talent. And Ingret, this is a reflection of the condition of a woman whose husband is at war, also a feedback on the idea of the competition. I think it contains the most significant aspects of today’s culture and character of Ukraine,” says independent music observer, author of the KIRS_TV YouTube channel Natella Kirs.
Experts gave second place to Melovin with the song “DREAMER”. True, the attitude towards this artist turned out to be ambiguous. According to one of our judges, his song is quite lightweight for a European audience. And, nevertheless, the national selection jury will face a rather difficult choice, since both Ingret and Melovin have quite strong songs. They're just quite different. If the composition of the first one definitely resonates in the hearts of Ukrainian listeners, then the second one may be coolly received by Ukrainians, then the second one may be better received by Europe.
“Compared to other members, Melovin is the most accurate in its message. But his message is more personal and abstract. Perhaps at the main competition his song will be more understandable than the others. Therefore, the main struggle will unfold in the national selection between him and Ingret. Her song will suit Ukrainian listeners better. But considering that Europe doesn’t really want to hear anything about the war, Melovin’s song is more suitable for the main competition. The jury will face a difficult choice. They choose the song that resonates best with Ukrainian listeners, or they greenlight the composition that best meets the expectations of European viewers of the main competition,” says YUNA music award producer and music commentator Igor Panasov.
The third favorite was the collaboration of alyona alyona & Jerry Heil. Their song “Teresa & Maria” became the leader in the number of views on YouTube, and also took first place in the European voting on the official Eurovision website. So, it is quite possible that they will become the leaders in the TV viewer voting and the jury will have to decide who will go to the competition in Sweden.
“When I was on the jury from Ukraine at Eurovision itself, I saw from the inside how Europeans perceive representatives of other countries. When a song has certain trends that are combined with the folk sound that is inherent in a particular country, it turns out to be most effective. And it works better than a formulaic Eurovision song. Therefore, alyona alyona & Jerry Heil seemed to me the best option to participate in this international competition,” says popular radio host and Ukrainian Armed Forces officer Serge Gagarin.
The top 4 candidates for victory in the national selection are closed by the group “Ziferblat” with the song “Place I Call Home”. Last year, after the release of the album, they made a splash among musical aesthetes. This did not particularly affect the number of views and listens, but, to a certain extent, they are already called a musical phenomenon. That is why our experts rated them quite highly, although they themselves strongly doubt that the musicians will advance further.
“If anyone has any complaints about the English language of DREVO, then Ziferblat is about the European format, perfect sound, and a professional approach. The song is in harmony with the text and its sound goes straight into the soul, thanks to its light, it creates the mood of the song and the meanings that everyone so wants to demonstrate,” says Natella Kirs.
However, what experts like does not always appeal to a wider audience.. Their song, according to our judges, may seem complex to those audiences who are accustomed to simpler harmonies.
“The work of Ziferblat was incomprehensible to me at the beginning. It was felt that they wanted to do something cool, interesting and different from what other musicians are doing now. But at the same time I did not hear any completed form. That's why all the previous tracks didn't have any wow effect on me. And now they've finally made a structured story that sounds cool and breaks the mold. Therefore, it seems to me that in this format they could prove to the European listener the Europeanness, unconventionality and creativity of Ukrainian music,” says Serge Gagarin.
Another favorite of the competition, whom many had previously considered a real contender for victory, was left behind. We are talking about the musical discovery of last year, the artist YAKTAK. According to the voting results of our experts, he took eighth place. And this despite the fact that he is one of the top three in terms of views on YouTube. Nevertheless, all experts consider this song to be too lightweight for the current time and therefore it is unlikely to receive mass support at the competition itself. The only thing that can save this artist is his fan base. Even if he doesn’t win the competition itself, he may well end up among the leaders in the audience vote.
Fanbase War
Despite the fact that this competition has three undisputed leaders, the remaining participants are also quite strong. Therefore, we are guaranteed a high-quality and interesting television concert.. And we are clearly expecting a serious battle between the fan bases of several artists. And the fact that alyona alyona and Jerry Heil will unite their efforts in this sense does not mean anything at all.
“The audience will vote as always emotionally. Therefore, the national selection, of course, can turn into a battle between fan bases. But I'm not sure that this will be a confrontation between alyona alyona & Jerry Heil and YAKTAK fans. Despite the fact that the former now have the largest views, they do not necessarily translate into the number of votes for these artists. Let me remind you that Jerry Heil already has a bad experience participating in the selection.. Then the army of fans did not save her. Therefore, the organization and cohesion of the fan base will play a role.. Despite the fact that Melovin has fewer subscribers than YAKTAK or alyona alyona and Jerry Heil together, his fans are more loyal and mobilized,” says Igor Panasov.
According to experts, this national selection will be, first of all, for YAKTAK, a test of its own fans, how devoted they are to him and how ready they are to participate in voting for him.
And it is for this same reason that the chances of our experts’ main favorite Ingret do not seem so good. Unfortunately, she doesn’t have a large army of fans, and she won’t be able to recruit them in the remaining two weeks.
“I think that a parallel can be drawn between views on YouTube and the support that artists will receive in the TV viewer vote. Melovin also has a strong fan club and it will help him get to the top,” says Serge Gagarin.
What do viewers of the main competition need?
This year, half of the participants use ethno-motifs in their songs to a greater or lesser extent. This is not surprising, since previous international competitions set such a trend for several years to come.. But this is precisely the trap for contestants from Ukraine. In order to win the national selection, inclusion of folk music is desirable. Therefore, victories in previous competitions “Kalush Orchestra” and “Go_A” look encouraging for new applicants. But the demand for Ukrainian folk on the international stage is not so high.
“Incorporating ethnicity into a song at Eurovision works when the cultural layer that the participant presents is a strong brand and is easily recognizable, like Spanish flamenco, Balkan disco or French chanson. Unfortunately, the use of Ukrainian ethnicity does not give the same effect, since it is not a widespread popular brand, despite the fact that folk motifs are present in the winning numbers of Ruslana or “Kalush Orchestra”. There were other successes, but this ethnicity was not the main reason for the success of our artists. Most likely this was the spice of their number. However, Ingret’s number is well suited for this competition, since she does not overuse ethnic motifs in her song,” says Igor Panasov.
Another topic that is directly or indirectly touched upon in the songs of the participants is, of course, war. Of course, Ukrainian viewers would probably be surprised if the artists ignored this. However, this topic has become a trap for our performers.. The reason is that talking about it from the Eurovision stage can reduce the impression of the European public about our performer.
“The message that we are at war should be in the song. We must not let Europeans and the whole world forget what is happening in Ukraine. The war is not over yet and we need the support of civilized countries. But it must be in the most correct form. It must meet the expectations of people who will watch it and draw their own conclusions. Therefore, if we want to attract attention to ourselves, we must show ourselves not from the position that everything is bad for us, the end of the world and that’s why we sing sad, scary songs about farewell and our misfortune,” says radio host and Ukrainian Armed Forces officer Serge Gagarin.
In any case, we will find out whether our experts were right on the evening of February 3. The broadcast time of the National Selection on Suspilnya has not yet been confirmed.
Rating of participants in the National selection for Eurovision
1. Ingret
2. Melovin
3. alyona alyona & jerry heil
4. Ziferblat
5.Anka
6.Skylerr
7. Yagody
8. Yaktak
9. Nazva
10. Nahaba
11.Drevo