After growth in anticipation of the approval of spot and other ETFs by the American regulator, the situation on the market has calmed down: the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) again postponed the decision on applications. Investors decided to take profits by starting a sale of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin lost about 2.5% in the week from November 11 to November 17. Five out of seven trading sessions ended in the red. BTC has not yet been able to reach and overcome the limit value of $38,000 in recent months. At the auction on Tuesday, November 14, the first cryptocurrency by capitalization completely dropped to the $35,000 mark.
Source: tradingview.com
There were several reasons for the decline. First , the SEC is clearly slow to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs. On November 15, the regulator postponed the decision to convert the BTC futures exchange-traded fund from Hashdex into a spot analogue. The Commission cited the receipt of new applications to launch ETFs as justification for delaying the approval of applications.
The second reason is the increased number of liquidations (forced closures of positions). On November 11 and November 13, their volume exceeded $120 million. This was largely due to the fact that as $38,000 approached, more and more sell orders were triggered.
Source: coinglass.com
The third reason is the lack of liquidity in long positions. The Material Indicators portal hints at this. From the published data it is clear that sell orders prevail for Bitcoin near $38,000, and there are buy orders only around $33,000. Here is what Material Indicators writes:
“FireCharts shows BTC price falling after another failed attempt to break $38,000. While I remain of the opinion that the market will enter a correction, we still cannot rule out the possibility of reaching the $38,000-$40,000 range. ETF approval could be the catalyst. however, the window for a decision closes on Friday (November 17). Just know that the situation has changed and protect your profits. You won't want to give away everything you earned this week.”.
A trader under the pseudonym Horse is also pessimistic:
“The path of least resistance for BTC is down. If we go through the remaining orders that are awaiting execution. I think the recent surge has been mild due to the empty pocket created by the liquidations. Anyone waiting for a drawdown passively added long positions to the market. I’m staying in the shorts I mentioned last night.”
What’s interesting is that in Turkey, Bitcoin is doing well. In November, BTC reached a historical high on local trading platforms – just under 1.1 million Turkish lira. Reason: Turkey has very high inflation – over 60%.
From the point of view of technical analysis, Bitcoin is experiencing a sideways trend rather than a deep correction. It will be possible to talk about it only if the resistance level of $35,000 is broken. The RSI indicator has begun to decline, but it still remains above 50. Bitcoin volatility in November 2023 was the highest in eight months, as evidenced by the ATR indicator.
Source: tradingview.com
The fear and greed index lost seven points compared to last week. On the evening of Friday, November 17, its value was 63. Which still indicates the predominance of greed over fear.
Ethereum
Ether lost more than 5% in value from November 10 to November 17, 2023. The coin safely flew out of $2,100, and then from $2,000. The trading sessions on November 14 and 16 had a decisive influence on the weekly dynamics of this cryptocurrency, when Ether lost 3.62% and 4.74%, respectively.
Source: tradingview.com
Ether ETFs, like Bitcoin ETFs, have not yet received SEC approval. Grayscale's futures exchange-traded fund window was also delayed. But investment giant BlackRock has officially submitted an application for a spot ETF for ether. Naturally, it has not yet been approved, and there is no more reason for investors to rejoice.
Hardly encouraging for Ethereum supporters was a new statement from lawyer Steven Nerayoff, who accused Ethereum creators Vitalik Buterin and Joseph Lubin of fraud and sabotage..
From the point of view of technical analysis, the ether has moved to a correction. Attempts to storm the yearly high and at the same time the resistance level of $2,140.8 have so far been unsuccessful. How deep the correction will be, time will tell. For now, the nearest resistance level is last week’s low $1,934.4. What can give bulls some positivity is the fact that the price of Ether is still above the 200-day moving average (indicated in blue).
Source: tradingview.com
Avalanche
From November 10 to November 17, 2023, the Avalanche cryptocurrency showed on average better dynamics than the market and increased in price by more than 48%. At the same time, at the maximum on Thursday, November 16, the AVAX token cost $27.78, which gave an increase of almost 88%.
Source: tradingview.com
Avalanche was able to achieve such impressive results by concluding a number of agreements with well-known banks. American City and the parent company Ava Cloud have agreed to create an application based on blockchain technology for conducting Forex transactions. The bank will be responsible for tracking quotes online, and Avalanche will provide secure recording of transactions. This was officially announced on November 15.
The Avalanche team also announced cooperation with the blockchain platform of JP Bank. Morgan Onyx and investment company Apollo Global. The partnership became a reality thanks to the Monetary Authority of Singapore's Project Guardian program.. Additionally, the LayerZero application will connect to Onyx through the Avalanche Evegreen subnet. This will ensure subscription and redemption of WisdomTree funds.
From a technical analysis point of view, AVAX looks quite strong. However, it should be noted: since October 19, the price has already increased more than three times, so a correction is increasingly likely. This, for example, is evidenced by the RSI indicator, which showed a bearish divergence (orange arrows show an increase in price with a simultaneous decrease in RSI). Overall, AVAX has already lost more than 20% from its local maximum. At the same time, the price is above the 200-day moving average (indicated in blue), which is a plus for the bulls. Further growth is possible after breaking through the resistance level of $27.78. The support level is the $21.5 mark, which the cryptocurrency unsuccessfully stormed in January-April 2023.
Source: tradingview.com
Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell in price. New ETF applications are no longer encouraging investors, and the SEC still lacks the resolve to approve even one spot exchange-traded fund. Avalanche cryptocurrency turned out to be better than the market, as it managed to reach partnership agreements with a number of well-known banks.
This material and the information contained herein do not constitute individual or other investment advice. The opinion of the editors may not coincide with the opinions of the author, analytical portals and experts.